The key trends from the World Cup, and what they mean for Australia
Related Story: Let's be realistic – the Socceroos need to beat Denmark. The good news is they can
After every World Cup, FIFA produces a technical report which offers an in-depth look at the tactics and innovations that teams have implemented through the tournament.
It's a useful exercise because, quite often, a World Cup becomes a historical reference point for how the game looks at that point in time. The assumption that the World Cup mostly mirrors the complexion of the wider club game is, for the most part, accurate.
This tournament, or at least its first week or so, has proven mostly true to that form but with some pretty crucial variations here and there.
More than just aesthetic points of interest, these variations in tactics and mentality could go a long way to determining the success of many teams in Russia, not least the Socceroos. So, what have we seen so far?
Safety first means the press goes missing
The European club season just gone saw the high, manic press become a feature of some very successful teams. The ability to win the ball in advantageous positions, or just stifle the opponent's ability to pass its way up the field comfortably, proved an incredibly valuable commodity.
But the problem with the high press is that it is an incredibly risky tactic, as anything other than complete cohesion and organisation can result in competent teams moving straight through the scrambled sea of onrushing defenders and into a numerical advantage.
Given coaches only have a few weeks at the most with the national teams before the tournament begins, most teams have taken the safe option and left the press for the winter months.
There has been the odd exception — Morocco was very aggressive off the ball against Portugal, for example — but most teams have been happy to sit deep, which leads us to …
The counter is king
A large portion of teams at this World Cup do not want the ball. Sometimes it's because they are more concerned with defence, sometimes it's because they have no idea what to do with it, and sometimes it's both.
The average ball possession of winning teams at this World Cup is 51 per cent, and down to 49 per cent without Spain's massive 78 per cent time in possession against Iran.
If that doesn't sound a particularly low amount, add in Portugal drawing with Spain with 34 per cent and Iceland drawing with Argentina with an incredible 22 per cent of possession, and it seems plenty of teams are finding success without the ball.
So how far can this sort of tactic take a team? Unless a team is really sharp on the counter-attack, like Germany four years ago, probably only so far.
After the first week, Spain has looked the team most comfortable and penetrative in possession, only undone by a freak Cristiano Ronaldo showing. Croatia's midfield play completely sucked the life out of Nigeria with the peerless Luka Modric guiding the ship, but even they struggled to turn that into chances.
Brazil showed signs of effective and confident ball use in its draw with Switzerland, and though they both had problems creating, Belgium and England bossed the ball and managed to win their games too.
Of the counter-attacking pack, Portugal was scintillating at times against Spain and Mexico was brisk, if not completely cohesive, in tearing Germany's defence apart with regularity. Whether or not a side can counter its way all the way to the Cup is one of the most fascinating elements of this tournament.
First goal wins
As yet, no team has scored first at this World Cup and lost, and only three have managed to come from behind to draw.
This ties heavily into the previous point — teams are taking leads and completely shutting up shop, asking the opposition to use its creative quality to break down a low block.
And, as mentioned, there aren't many teams at this World Cup who can actually do that. Lionel Messi and Argentina certainly couldn't, and the many stars of France needed outrageous fortune to beat a solid and compact Australia.
Whether this is because teams have become better at defending or worse at attacking is up for debate, but the fact of the matter is you won't see many teams passing their way through loaded defences in Russia.
Can't create? Use the set piece
Perhaps because destroying has become more fashionable than creating, more than half of the goals at this World Cup — 52 per cent, or 23 of 44 goals scored — have come from set pieces, including penalties.
There have been a high number of penalties, with the VAR playing its part in that, and already more direct free kick goals in Russia than in the entirety of the 2014 World Cup.
As a get out of jail card, it's proven pretty handy. Uruguay has been turgid in possession so far, but is safely through with two wins thanks to two goals from corners. England was promising with the ball against Tunisia, but still needed a lurking Harry Kane from two corners to get the win there.
Serbia, Iran, Portugal, Japan and Switzerland have all earned points from a timely set play. In tight games with creativity in open play lacking, the dead ball is having a massive say in Russia.
What does this mean for Australia?
Well, if Ange Postecoglou had stuck around, his Socceroos team — with its back three and desire to always dominate the ball — would be a real outlier at this tournament, but Bert van Marwijk's pragmatic side is much more in line with the general thinking.
It also gives clues as to how the Socceroos' next two games could play out, because both Denmark and Peru have been eager to defend and counter despite the attacking talents they boast. There's every chance neither Australia or Denmark will want to take the possessional initiative in Samara.
With that in mind, as has so often been the case at this World Cup, the first goal will become crucial. Scoring first effectively ensures the rest of the game is played on your terms, and immediately forces your opponent out of its defensive comfort zone.
The Socceroos also threatened France from set pieces, and you can bet van Marwijk has looked to work on them further at training. With Denmark missing its most experienced defender William Kvist, the Socceroos will have hopes of lifting that average even higher.
If the rest of the tournament is anything to go by, Australia's next two matches will be tight affairs decided by very fine margins. Or can the Socceroos buck some of these trends?
[contf]
[contfnew]
ABC .net
[contfnewc]
[contfnewc]
