The AFL grand final awaits, as Eagles, Pies defy expectations to stand one step from glory
Related Story: Maybe Collingwood isn't that bad after all
Two thrilling teams to watch, two quite remarkable paths to the MCG, and two teams hell-bent on taking that crucial final step — for the West Coast Eagles and Collingwood, the 2018 premiership is on the line.
Having played a ripping qualifying final in Perth only three weeks ago, the Eagles and Magpies meet again on the other side of the country, and with a much bigger prize on the horizon.
That first final remains the only genuinely close contest we've seen this September, which bodes well for a grand final classic. All is in readiness.
Eagles defy the doubters and soar to grand final
Something has been happening at West Coast all season, though you could be forgiven for missing it.
The Eagles have somehow gone through 2018 hidden in plain sight, predicted by nearly everyone in preseason to slip well out of finals contention — one veteran expert famously had them sliding all the way to the wooden spoon — and subsequently written off a half dozen other times through the year.
Despite a strong start to the season, Nic Naitanui's injury was supposed to be the catalyst for decline. If not that, then the Andrew Gaff suspension. Or injuries to Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Luke Shuey and Brad Sheppard.
Turns out, the doubts have all been external. West Coast has been very much a closed book this year, letting the world write it off while maintaining a quiet and unerring self-belief. Many players have credited fatherhood for a change in mentality and increase in maturity — whatever the recipe, the Eagles have proven to be incredibly resilient.
Adam Simpson and his team haven't deviated from the formula for grand final week, keeping a steady calm to their preparations.
What will fuel Simpson's confidence is the extra strings his side has added to its bow this September. A kick-heavy, keep-ball style of play — West Coast has kicked twice as often as they handballed in the finals — aided by an impeccably organised defence, containing more genuine stars then are credited, and the league's most potent and versatile forward line when fit took the Eagles to second place on the ladder, but more has been required in the finals.
Against Collingwood and Melbourne, West Coast has added a pure contested element to its game and has statistically been the best contested ball team of the finals so far. Through the home-and-away season, the Eagles sat very low in terms of ground ball stats, but in September they've wiped both the Pies and Dees in that area.
A midfield reshuffle has worked wonders since Gaff was rubbed out, with Dom Sheed finally coming of age as an inside midfielder and Jack Redden now playing the hybrid role both inside and out. Elliot Yeo and Luke Shuey add dynamism from the middle, but they will all need to be at their very best to quell a rampaging Collingwood midfield unit.
As is usually the case in grand finals, the match will likely be decided in that area. If West Coast can, at the very least, break even in the guts, it will back Jeremy McGovern, Tom Barrass and Shannon Hurn to marshal the defence and the forward line to fire.
And what of that forward line? Everyone has seen the stat that reveals the Eagles are 12-0 with both Kennedy and Darling in the side, but they are now much more than just the two twin towers with Jamie Cripps, Liam Ryan and Willie Rioli all adding another element.
The Eagles have a lot going for them, but grand finals tend to expose even the slightest of weaknesses. Can a team missing so many of their best players really win a premiership? Has a move to the wider Perth Stadium killed the MCG issues for good? How do you stop a red-hot Collingwood?
If they manage to find correct answers to these questions, this might go down as the Eagles' greatest ever triumph.
The key three
- Scott Lycett: Along with Nathan Vardy, Lycett played a tactically perfect game to keep Max Gawn out of the preliminary final — but Brodie Grundy is a very different player. He'll need to run all day, nullify the big Pie in the ruck and graft when it hits the ground.
- Jamie Cripps: Statistically, Cripps has been the best defensive forward in the AFL this year. Simpson has also started using him off the back of the square at centre-bounces as a midfield link man, but he remains a goalkicking threat who is in career-best form.
- Jack Darling: We know what Josh Kennedy is capable of, but Darling has shown this season he too has the potential to blow games open. Most importantly, he needs to hold his marks — both in the forward line and as an outlet out of defence — and convert whatever chances he gets.
Magpie momentum hits maximum levels for the big one
When things click in football, they sometimes come together very quickly. Just ask Richmond in 2017.
But few would have picked the Magpies and coach Nathan Buckley to be in this position before this season started, especially after losses to Hawthorn and GWS in rounds one and two.
They have also had to deal with an injury list that could sink a battleship — but hasn't sunk the Pies.
So what's been different this year? Belief, and a mix of players that have gelled together.
The storylines — where do you start? From the redemption and justification for Buckley, to Tyson Goldsack and his recovery from knee injury, to Chris Mayne silencing the doubters … to Jordan de Goey and Josh Thomas seeking to move on after off-field lows with the ultimate in footy success, to Travis Varcoe and his grieving family driving an emotion waiting to erupt — win or lose — on Saturday.
Then there's the lanky yank Mason Cox, and the young (and not-so-young) rookies, Brayden Sier, Brody Mihocek and rising star Jaidyn Stephenson.
It's a compelling group of stories — but it would be anyway, simply because it's the black and the white, it's Eddie McGuire and Joffa and the Collingwood Army, and they're the biggest thing in Melbourne this grand final week.
In the prelim they stunned nearly everyone, out-Tigered Richmond in the pressure stakes, and blew them off the MCG in a first half to savour.
They will need nothing less than that effort to stop West Coast's attacking prowess — keeping the Eagles from their usual huge marking tally will go some way to stop them controlling the game.
It is a clash of styles — the possession-heavy Magpies against the get-it-in-there-quick plan of the Eagles. But Collingwood has tweaked its approach in this year's finals.
Instead of the strong focus on handball during the 2018 home-and-away season — a stat in which they topped the league with a kick-to-handball ratio of 1.19 to 1 — in September the Magpies have kicked more, handballed less and the ratio has risen to 1.36 to 1.
One possible concern for Collingwood is the fact that only five of the likely grand final side — Goldsack, Mayne, Varcoe, Steele Sidebottom and skipper Scott Pendlebury — have previous grand final experience, compared to more than a dozen players for the Eagles.
Is it a year early for these Magpies? Perhaps. Can they get it done? Yes, but will they? That's the $6 million question.
The key three
- Mason Cox: The skyscraping American showed strong separation, great leads and strong hands against Richmond. If he can do the same to West Coast, the Pies will have one hand on the cup.
- Steele Sidebottom: The gun midfielder has been the player of the finals. If the Pies are going to match the attack of West Coast, they will need his clearances, outside run and drive inside 50.
- Jeremy Howe: His positive scans on a suspect ankle gave Collingwood a big boost — his rebound off half-back will be key, and he will have the tough task of shutting down Eagles target Jack Darling.
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